Grain > Commentary > 9-9-2022

9/9/2022

Sep 09, 2022

9/9/2022
Corn and soybeans were higher from the start of overnight trade and finish Friday with double-digit gains.  It appeared that there was not much of a live hand active in trade today and computers were trading between in each other.  With corn returning to recent highs in such poor volume, remaining upside now feels very limited following Monday's WASDE report, unless we get some surprise numbers to feed the bull.  We have not had a weekly export sales report since the USDA switched to a new report format nearly a month ago.  The USDA finally announced today that they would release four weeks of sales data on September 15, split into two separate reports.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 104,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Taiwan during the 2022/23 marketing year this morning.  There is a lot of buzz surrounding a potential railroad strike.  If a shutdown does happen, how much grain will need to be shifted to barge and truck freight?  Will we be able to recover from any lost shipping time?  We had a nice general rainfall overnight to help push soybeans into the finish.  Trade is expecting the USDA to reduce its yield forecast for this year's crop from 51.9 bu/ac to 51.4 b/a in Monday's report.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.