Grain > Commentary > 9-9-2020

9/9/2020

Sep 09, 2020

9/9/2020
Last night’s crop condition report had corn at 61% and beans at 65% good to excellent.  Both down 1%.  Beans made a new high this morning at 9.8175 futures after a couple soybean export sales were announced.  238,000 MT for 2020/21 to China and 132,000 MT to unknown.  9.8275 November was the January 2nd high I have been talking about for a couple weeks now.  How high can this market go this close to harvest?  With the next USDA report on Friday we are about to find out.  It feels like this market is set up to either explode or bust at this point.  I can find an argument for either case, but be careful here.  If you are under sold on beans, I would be making sales here ahead of the report on Friday and "hope" I am wrong.  If we make a sale at 9.10 and the market goes higher, we will still have more to sell.  As I said before, this is not the time to try and hit a home run.  Make a bunch of base hits instead of striking out and our sales will average out nicely. 
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.