Grain > Commentary > 9-9-2020

9/9/2020

Sep 09, 2020

9/9/2020
Last night’s crop condition report had corn at 61% and beans at 65% good to excellent.  Both down 1%.  Beans made a new high this morning at 9.8175 futures after a couple soybean export sales were announced.  238,000 MT for 2020/21 to China and 132,000 MT to unknown.  9.8275 November was the January 2nd high I have been talking about for a couple weeks now.  How high can this market go this close to harvest?  With the next USDA report on Friday we are about to find out.  It feels like this market is set up to either explode or bust at this point.  I can find an argument for either case, but be careful here.  If you are under sold on beans, I would be making sales here ahead of the report on Friday and "hope" I am wrong.  If we make a sale at 9.10 and the market goes higher, we will still have more to sell.  As I said before, this is not the time to try and hit a home run.  Make a bunch of base hits instead of striking out and our sales will average out nicely. 
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.