Grain > Commentary > 9-8-2020

9/8/2020

Sep 08, 2020

9/8/2020
Corn and beans came out of long weekend higher on the overnight session before faltering into the coffee break.  Then the USDA announced 400,000 tons of beans to China, another 264,000 tons of beans to China, and 101,600 tons of corn to Unknown.  That got the markets to bounce instantly on the 8:30 am open and traded higher most of the day.  Beans made a new high for the move last night at 9.77 futures, but never traded that high again during the day session.  9.82 Nov futures remains the target.  I hope we can get there this week ahead of the report.  I would have orders working.  Corn traded over 3.63 for a short period of time, but once again finished below that level.  Tonight, we will get the updated crop ratings.  Not sure they matter much anymore due to the crops being mature, but U.S. corn is seen down 1% at 61% good-to-excellent and beans seen down 2% at 64%.  We will get that answer at 3:00 pm today.  Friday is the USDA crop report at 11 am.  Estimates have corn yield at 178.3 bpa and bean yield at 51.8 bpa.  Outside markets were ugly again today and it feels like eventually that could bleed over into the grains once we get this report out of the way if it is not too bullish.  The Dow was down over 500 points again today.  Crude oil was down about 3 bucks.
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.