Grain > Commentary > 9-8-2020

9/8/2020

Sep 08, 2020

9/8/2020
Corn and beans came out of long weekend higher on the overnight session before faltering into the coffee break.  Then the USDA announced 400,000 tons of beans to China, another 264,000 tons of beans to China, and 101,600 tons of corn to Unknown.  That got the markets to bounce instantly on the 8:30 am open and traded higher most of the day.  Beans made a new high for the move last night at 9.77 futures, but never traded that high again during the day session.  9.82 Nov futures remains the target.  I hope we can get there this week ahead of the report.  I would have orders working.  Corn traded over 3.63 for a short period of time, but once again finished below that level.  Tonight, we will get the updated crop ratings.  Not sure they matter much anymore due to the crops being mature, but U.S. corn is seen down 1% at 61% good-to-excellent and beans seen down 2% at 64%.  We will get that answer at 3:00 pm today.  Friday is the USDA crop report at 11 am.  Estimates have corn yield at 178.3 bpa and bean yield at 51.8 bpa.  Outside markets were ugly again today and it feels like eventually that could bleed over into the grains once we get this report out of the way if it is not too bullish.  The Dow was down over 500 points again today.  Crude oil was down about 3 bucks.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.