Grain > Commentary > 9-7-2023

9/7/2023

Sep 07, 2023

Corn and soybeans were stuck in lower trade in a very quiet Thursday.  Corn was uneventful with closes ranging from unchanged to down 1 cent on the day.  December 23 corn was the sole higher finish with a 1/2 cent gain.  Soybeans saw the remaining fresh length from the beginning of the week squashed out of the market, trading two-week lows and finding some basic technical support at the 50-day moving average.  Soybeans closed with 8-16 cent losses.  Weekly ethanol data showed production rising 5,000 barrels/day to 1.012 mln bpd.  Stocks were up slightly on the week.  Despite several of its own loading facilities damaged, it is reported that Ukraine has begun to export grains through Croatia.  Early dryland yield reports out of Kansas and Nebraska give no indications of a crop disaster.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.