9/7/2022

A bit of a messy day across the markets with the overnight and first half of the day session featuring some firmly higher price action in grains. Dec corn traded 12 higher and Nov beans traded 34 higher before sharply reversing lower on the day. Today's trade was all set up by money chasing one headline on the wheat board. Russian President Putin was featured in the media criticizing the Ukrainian export corridor after only being active for five weeks. Managed money came in strong thinking this was bullish U.S. exports, especially wheat, but there's something to be said about pricing ourselves out of the global market. Current export sales on the books for 2022/23 corn and wheat aren't exactly bullish figures and with crude oil breaking lower today to levels not traded since mid-January is not helpful. With ethanol and soybean oil providing a crossover into the energy trade for corn and soybeans, crude oil prices are going to affect grain prices. The USDA confirmed the sale of 257,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico with 226,920 tonnes delivered in 2022/23 and 30,480 tonnes delivered in 2023/24. It's been quite some time since we've seen a corn export sale announcement and we need to see some more if we want the USDA to leave their corn export goal unchanged for the marketing year. We get a fresh set of supply and demand fundamentals, including revised acres, in next week's September WASDE report. The USDA typically gives us the updated acres in the October report.

Impressive technical action in soybeans today. Around the 9:30 timeframe this morning, November soybeans were trading a potential key bullish reversal on the chart. Money began flushing back out at the mid-day point and the end result was a reversal lower and a 50 cent range on the day.