9/7/2021

Pre-harvest pressure continues after the extended holiday weekend.  Corn and soybeans both traded either side of unchanged overnight.  Soybeans mounted a solid effort to make a move higher, going into the morning break 6 higher but there isn't much on the horizon to stem off the seasonal downtrend.  After setting our contract highs in May/June, it became evident earlier this summer that the US would not run out of corn or soybeans.  Spreads started weakening and old crop export business was subject to some cancellations.  Going into our September WASDE report, the USDA is reviewing corn and soybean acres a month earlier than normal and we are expecting another round of slight increases to the corn and soybean ending stocks for 2020/2021.  Harvested corn acres for the 2021/22 crop year are also expected to increase from the August report, adding roughly 100 million bushels to next year's ending stocks.  We know not everybody's crop is perfect this year but we knew the timing of the rains we did get was more important than the amounts and the timing was perfect.  Locally, comments on the crop in general have the basic of theme of "there's a lot more out here than a guy would think."  Soybean spreads closed at contract lows today, with rolling November out to January being the most attractive at this time.  Corn spreads weakened again, continuing their down trend and offering the largest carries since Aug/Sept of last year.