9/7/2021

Sep 07, 2021


9/7/2021
Pre-harvest pressure continues after the extended holiday weekend.  Corn and soybeans both traded either side of unchanged overnight.  Soybeans mounted a solid effort to make a move higher, going into the morning break 6 higher but there isn't much on the horizon to stem off the seasonal downtrend.  After setting our contract highs in May/June, it became evident earlier this summer that the US would not run out of corn or soybeans.  Spreads started weakening and old crop export business was subject to some cancellations.  Going into our September WASDE report, the USDA is reviewing corn and soybean acres a month earlier than normal and we are expecting another round of slight increases to the corn and soybean ending stocks for 2020/2021.  Harvested corn acres for the 2021/22 crop year are also expected to increase from the August report, adding roughly 100 million bushels to next year's ending stocks.  We know not everybody's crop is perfect this year but we knew the timing of the rains we did get was more important than the amounts and the timing was perfect.  Locally, comments on the crop in general have the basic of theme of "there's a lot more out here than a guy would think."  Soybean spreads closed at contract lows today, with rolling November out to January being the most attractive at this time.  Corn spreads weakened again, continuing their down trend and offering the largest carries since Aug/Sept of last year.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.