9/6/2023

A steep drop in soybean crop conditions provided a shot of life in the bean and meal trade and provided general support to grains.  Soybeans were rated as 53% good/excellent, a 5-point drop from last week's rating.  It sounds bullish at face value but there was quite a bit of weather risk premium priced into the market late last week.  Trade was expecting only a 3-point drop in the g/e soybean ratings so the crop conditions report fed the bulls a little bit.  Truthfully, we are at the point in the season in which crop conditions are becoming irrelevant to the market.  Corn and soybeans were sold off at mid-day leaving corn around 1 lower on the day and sent soybeans falling from 20 higher to finishes ranging from 3-11 cents.  December corn has been stuck inside of a 25-cent range for over a month while November soybeans have improved about 50 cents in that same timeframe.  There were no sale announcements from the USDA this morning.  This coming Tuesday, the USDA will release the September WASDE report at 11 a.m. where we could see some adjustments in the 2022/23 ending stocks and potential in the 2023 yields.  It feels like trade is really positioning itself for a bull run in soybeans which will only hurt U.S. exports and incentivize Brazil farmers.