9/5/2023

Sep 05, 2023


A sluggish start to the week for corn and soybeans in some of the lightest volume trade we've seen in 2023 so far. Corn managed to finish the day 1-4 cents higher after some late session buying. Soybeans were unable to hold onto higher trade early and slipped into the red around mid-day. Beans finished mixed with 1-4 cent losses out to the July 2024 contract and 1-5 higher from August 2024 and beyond. This is some typical price action following seasonal trends ahead of fall. Fundamentally, it is just plain hard to find buyers with harvest only a few weeks out but this should be expected. The USDA announced the sale of 251,000 tonnes of soybeans to for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year. The assumption is always that these announcements should be bullish but total sales volume for the 2023/24 year is very poor compared 2022/23 volumes at this same time last year. Weekly export inspections came in as expected with 481k tonnes of corn and 379k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. With Brazil looking continue producing at record acres and yields with a cheaper availability, the U.S. export opportunities will be limited unless some sort of issue in South America develops.

December Weekly Continuous Chart: Following seasonal trends, we are looking for December corn to trade down to the 450’0 area, with potential to go as low as 430’0, using this falling-wedge-like pattern. This is a spot to look for funds and specs to re-own corn.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.