9/30/2022

The markets were quietly up overnight with corn mostly 2-5 cents higher and soybeans hanging in the 5-10 cents higher range. More buying came in ahead of this morning's quarterly grain stocks report, which saw the daily high for November beans at 1425'6. Corn stocks came in at 1.377 which was roughly 135 million bushels below the average trade guess. According to the report, more than a third of corn stocks are still being stored on farms. The immediate reaction to the report shot corn up to trade 27 cents higher before being sold off quickly, returning below the 680-mark going into the close. This does give us some very tight ending stocks for 2022/23 but the USDA's export numbers for this marketing year are becoming more and more unattainable unless we start seeing some large sale numbers. Huge pressure in soybeans also pulled corn off of its highs, putting a potential triple top on the December chart just below the 700'0 level. Soybean stocks came in much higher than trade anticipated at 274 million bushels versus a 242-million-bushel average trade estimate. This sent beans spiraling into sharply lower trade with the November contract closing 46 lower on the day.

November soybeans broke to the downside through two lines of trend support. A large gap from late July hangs below and creates an easy technical objective for trade.