9/30/2020

Report day didn't disappoint as the USDA throws us a shocker.  Bean stocks were pegged at 523 million vs an average guess of 576 million.  Corn stocks were pegged at 1.995 billion vs the average guess of 2.250 billion.  There may be more questions than answers after this report, but there is no doubt this will make the Oct 9th WASDE report very interesting!  The volatility will continue into October as harvest will be in full swing.  Trying to dig through the details of this report is very confusing.  The USDA went back and revised the June stocks numbers lower for corn, which to me seems unthinkable and they are getting criticized for that action.  After the report on twitter the USDA answers questions and I found this very interesting.  The question was, Curious how June 1 corn stocks were revised down 205 million bushel, what new data was available to suggest that?  The answer…."Once the marketing year is complete and we have measured ending stocks, we consider all the information available for the season to adjust previous quarter stocks as needed.  We also received some late data."  That answer is a great professional way of saying we were wrong!  There is never a dull moment in 2020!