9/30/2020

Sep 30, 2020


9/30/2020
Report day didn't disappoint as the USDA throws us a shocker.  Bean stocks were pegged at 523 million vs an average guess of 576 million.  Corn stocks were pegged at 1.995 billion vs the average guess of 2.250 billion.  There may be more questions than answers after this report, but there is no doubt this will make the Oct 9th WASDE report very interesting!  The volatility will continue into October as harvest will be in full swing.  Trying to dig through the details of this report is very confusing.  The USDA went back and revised the June stocks numbers lower for corn, which to me seems unthinkable and they are getting criticized for that action.  After the report on twitter the USDA answers questions and I found this very interesting.  The question was, Curious how June 1 corn stocks were revised down 205 million bushel, what new data was available to suggest that?  The answer…."Once the marketing year is complete and we have measured ending stocks, we consider all the information available for the season to adjust previous quarter stocks as needed.  We also received some late data."  That answer is a great professional way of saying we were wrong!  There is never a dull moment in 2020! 
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.