Grain > Commentary > 9-30-2020

9/30/2020

Sep 30, 2020

9/30/2020
Report day didn't disappoint as the USDA throws us a shocker.  Bean stocks were pegged at 523 million vs an average guess of 576 million.  Corn stocks were pegged at 1.995 billion vs the average guess of 2.250 billion.  There may be more questions than answers after this report, but there is no doubt this will make the Oct 9th WASDE report very interesting!  The volatility will continue into October as harvest will be in full swing.  Trying to dig through the details of this report is very confusing.  The USDA went back and revised the June stocks numbers lower for corn, which to me seems unthinkable and they are getting criticized for that action.  After the report on twitter the USDA answers questions and I found this very interesting.  The question was, Curious how June 1 corn stocks were revised down 205 million bushel, what new data was available to suggest that?  The answer…."Once the marketing year is complete and we have measured ending stocks, we consider all the information available for the season to adjust previous quarter stocks as needed.  We also received some late data."  That answer is a great professional way of saying we were wrong!  There is never a dull moment in 2020! 
 

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.