Grain > Commentary > 9-30-2020

9/30/2020

Sep 30, 2020

9/30/2020
Report day didn't disappoint as the USDA throws us a shocker.  Bean stocks were pegged at 523 million vs an average guess of 576 million.  Corn stocks were pegged at 1.995 billion vs the average guess of 2.250 billion.  There may be more questions than answers after this report, but there is no doubt this will make the Oct 9th WASDE report very interesting!  The volatility will continue into October as harvest will be in full swing.  Trying to dig through the details of this report is very confusing.  The USDA went back and revised the June stocks numbers lower for corn, which to me seems unthinkable and they are getting criticized for that action.  After the report on twitter the USDA answers questions and I found this very interesting.  The question was, Curious how June 1 corn stocks were revised down 205 million bushel, what new data was available to suggest that?  The answer…."Once the marketing year is complete and we have measured ending stocks, we consider all the information available for the season to adjust previous quarter stocks as needed.  We also received some late data."  That answer is a great professional way of saying we were wrong!  There is never a dull moment in 2020! 
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.