Grain > Commentary > 9-29-2023

9/29/2023

Sep 29, 2023

Quarterly grain stocks came in as follows:  Corn 1.361 bln bushels (1.429 estimated, 1.377 last year); soybeans 268 mln bushels (242 estimated, 274 last year); wheat 1.78 bln bushels (1.772 estimated, 1.778 last year).  Production numbers were slightly changed: corn 13.715 bln bu (13.719 est, 13.73 previous); soybeans 4.27 bln bu (4.269 est, 4.276 previous); wheat 1.65 bln bu (1.729 est, 1.734 in Aug).  The report was friendly corn, bearish wheat, and largely bearish soybeans.  The sell-off in soybeans and wheat following the report did not allow corn to take advantage of the friendly numbers.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.