9/29/2023

Sep 29, 2023


Quarterly grain stocks came in as follows:  Corn 1.361 bln bushels (1.429 estimated, 1.377 last year); soybeans 268 mln bushels (242 estimated, 274 last year); wheat 1.78 bln bushels (1.772 estimated, 1.778 last year).  Production numbers were slightly changed: corn 13.715 bln bu (13.719 est, 13.73 previous); soybeans 4.27 bln bu (4.269 est, 4.276 previous); wheat 1.65 bln bu (1.729 est, 1.734 in Aug).  The report was friendly corn, bearish wheat, and largely bearish soybeans.  The sell-off in soybeans and wheat following the report did not allow corn to take advantage of the friendly numbers.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.