9/29/2023

Sep 29, 2023


Quarterly grain stocks came in as follows:  Corn 1.361 bln bushels (1.429 estimated, 1.377 last year); soybeans 268 mln bushels (242 estimated, 274 last year); wheat 1.78 bln bushels (1.772 estimated, 1.778 last year).  Production numbers were slightly changed: corn 13.715 bln bu (13.719 est, 13.73 previous); soybeans 4.27 bln bu (4.269 est, 4.276 previous); wheat 1.65 bln bu (1.729 est, 1.734 in Aug).  The report was friendly corn, bearish wheat, and largely bearish soybeans.  The sell-off in soybeans and wheat following the report did not allow corn to take advantage of the friendly numbers.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.