9/29/2023

Sep 29, 2023


Quarterly grain stocks came in as follows:  Corn 1.361 bln bushels (1.429 estimated, 1.377 last year); soybeans 268 mln bushels (242 estimated, 274 last year); wheat 1.78 bln bushels (1.772 estimated, 1.778 last year).  Production numbers were slightly changed: corn 13.715 bln bu (13.719 est, 13.73 previous); soybeans 4.27 bln bu (4.269 est, 4.276 previous); wheat 1.65 bln bu (1.729 est, 1.734 in Aug).  The report was friendly corn, bearish wheat, and largely bearish soybeans.  The sell-off in soybeans and wheat following the report did not allow corn to take advantage of the friendly numbers.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.