9/29/2022

Grains featured some volatility and higher trade during the overnight session. Soybeans whipped around at the 8:30 market open, trading an 18-cent range in the first hour. With some pressure on wheat, action in corn was much more subdued. The remainder of the day was much more quiet and less eventful with corn and soybeans both locked inside of 5-7 cent ranges from 10:00 am into the close. In some peculiar spread action, the Nov:Jan soybean spread opened at over 10 cents last night! If you have November hedges and are storing beans at home this year, it’s time to pay attention. This is the best opportunity to pick up a carry on the board in two years! Weekly ethanol data showed production at an average of 855,000 barrels/day last week. This is lowest average output since end of the February, 2021. Ethanol stocks rose 190,000 barrels to 22.69 million total. Weekly export sales were strong for soybeans with 1.003 million tonnes sold last week. Corn sales were just okay at 512k tonnes. The dollar index relaxed further off of its high mark from yesterday and with corn and soybeans firm near the bottom of their trading ranges for September, we will hopefully see evidence of increased interest in U.S. grains in next week's report.

Buying support for corn and soybeans through the mid-week point has been more technical than fundamental. On a short-term basis, grains became oversold quickly. December corn found a bid at its 100-day moving average and then on the bottom side of its trend channel yesterday and today. Corn has traded mostly sideways for the month of September and the moving average convergence in soybeans is some of the tightest we’ve seen in a while and tomorrow’s stocks report will hopefully provide some fresh fundamentals for market direction.