Sep 29, 2021

Tomorrow is the USDA Stocks Report at 11:00 am.  These stock reports are always important and you just never know if the USDA will throw any surprises.  The average trade estimate of bean stocks is 174 million bushels.  Estimates range from 145 million to 202 million bushels.  I think beans could see a little pressure as harvest continues, but might perk back up once harvest is wrapped up.  This crop is coming off at a record pace and yields are slightly better than expected.  There were no new bean sale announcements this morning.  The average trade estimate of corn stocks is 1.155 billion bu., down nearly 40% from 1.919 billion a year ago. Estimates range from 998 million to 1.252 billion bushels.  That seems like a huge drop, but is it really bullish at $5.50 Dec futures?  The corn export picture looks pathetic compared to last year’s program at the moment, even though there is still time to improve that.  The railroad threw a wrench in the corn program and raised rates to the PNW thinking the business is coming, so what do they know that we don't?  Either way a rate increase makes us less competitive in the world market.  The US dollar was up 640 ticks today and making new highs in an impressive fashion, which is not going to help exports.  Basis remains very firm considering its harvest, inviting the grain to be sold off the combine and it's happening thus far.

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