9/28/2020

Sep 28, 2020


9/28/2020
Corn tested support this morning down 4 cents at 3.60 futures before doing a full reversal and trading up a nickel at one-point late morning.  We did have some sales announced this morning of 207,140 metric ton of corn to Unknown, 110,800 metric ton of corn to Japan, and 218,300 metric ton of beans to Unknown.  We traded lower off that news initially, but as I mentioned corn bounced back.  Beans did finish down 6 cents on the day as harvest pressure continues to take its toll.  Beans are now 50 cents off last week’s highs.  Yields continue to come in about as expected on average.  Wednesday is the September stocks report, so be ready for that.  Corn harvest is expected to be 15-17%, compared to 8% last week, and soybean harvest is expected to be 16-18% done vs. 8% last week.  We will get that answer at 3:00 this afternoon.  Forecasts through the 14-day look to remain great for harvest activity, which should keep on lid on these markets for now. 
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.