9/28/2020

Sep 28, 2020


9/28/2020
Corn tested support this morning down 4 cents at 3.60 futures before doing a full reversal and trading up a nickel at one-point late morning.  We did have some sales announced this morning of 207,140 metric ton of corn to Unknown, 110,800 metric ton of corn to Japan, and 218,300 metric ton of beans to Unknown.  We traded lower off that news initially, but as I mentioned corn bounced back.  Beans did finish down 6 cents on the day as harvest pressure continues to take its toll.  Beans are now 50 cents off last week’s highs.  Yields continue to come in about as expected on average.  Wednesday is the September stocks report, so be ready for that.  Corn harvest is expected to be 15-17%, compared to 8% last week, and soybean harvest is expected to be 16-18% done vs. 8% last week.  We will get that answer at 3:00 this afternoon.  Forecasts through the 14-day look to remain great for harvest activity, which should keep on lid on these markets for now. 
 

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.