9/24/2020

Sep 24, 2020


9/24/2020
There were no sale announcements this morning for the first time since September 2nd.  The markets already felt defensive, but that just added fuel to the bears this morning.  November futures finished the day right at the phycological 10.00 mark we talked about down 14 cents for the day.  9.80 November looks to be the next target as harvest pressure continues to pick up steam.  The farmer still seems willing to sell beans over 9.00 across the scale.  Corn finished the day down a nickel at 3.635 December futures.  As I mentioned yesterday 3.60 is the 200-day moving average and remains the next target.  Exports sales were great for both corn and beans this morning, but that was almost a given and didn't offer any support to the markets.  There is no change in the weather at this point and that remains beneficial to harvest progress.  Yields thus far remain at or slightly above expectations.  Basis remains very strong as selling remains light and exports remain stout.  The market wants the beans off the combine and so far, they are getting them.  Corn will be a much tougher buy going forward as the farmer fills the bins and looks to pick up the carries. 
 

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.