9/24/2020

Sep 24, 2020


9/24/2020
There were no sale announcements this morning for the first time since September 2nd.  The markets already felt defensive, but that just added fuel to the bears this morning.  November futures finished the day right at the phycological 10.00 mark we talked about down 14 cents for the day.  9.80 November looks to be the next target as harvest pressure continues to pick up steam.  The farmer still seems willing to sell beans over 9.00 across the scale.  Corn finished the day down a nickel at 3.635 December futures.  As I mentioned yesterday 3.60 is the 200-day moving average and remains the next target.  Exports sales were great for both corn and beans this morning, but that was almost a given and didn't offer any support to the markets.  There is no change in the weather at this point and that remains beneficial to harvest progress.  Yields thus far remain at or slightly above expectations.  Basis remains very strong as selling remains light and exports remain stout.  The market wants the beans off the combine and so far, they are getting them.  Corn will be a much tougher buy going forward as the farmer fills the bins and looks to pick up the carries. 
 

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.