9/24/2020

Sep 24, 2020


9/24/2020
There were no sale announcements this morning for the first time since September 2nd.  The markets already felt defensive, but that just added fuel to the bears this morning.  November futures finished the day right at the phycological 10.00 mark we talked about down 14 cents for the day.  9.80 November looks to be the next target as harvest pressure continues to pick up steam.  The farmer still seems willing to sell beans over 9.00 across the scale.  Corn finished the day down a nickel at 3.635 December futures.  As I mentioned yesterday 3.60 is the 200-day moving average and remains the next target.  Exports sales were great for both corn and beans this morning, but that was almost a given and didn't offer any support to the markets.  There is no change in the weather at this point and that remains beneficial to harvest progress.  Yields thus far remain at or slightly above expectations.  Basis remains very strong as selling remains light and exports remain stout.  The market wants the beans off the combine and so far, they are getting them.  Corn will be a much tougher buy going forward as the farmer fills the bins and looks to pick up the carries. 
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.