9/24/2020

Sep 24, 2020


9/24/2020
There were no sale announcements this morning for the first time since September 2nd.  The markets already felt defensive, but that just added fuel to the bears this morning.  November futures finished the day right at the phycological 10.00 mark we talked about down 14 cents for the day.  9.80 November looks to be the next target as harvest pressure continues to pick up steam.  The farmer still seems willing to sell beans over 9.00 across the scale.  Corn finished the day down a nickel at 3.635 December futures.  As I mentioned yesterday 3.60 is the 200-day moving average and remains the next target.  Exports sales were great for both corn and beans this morning, but that was almost a given and didn't offer any support to the markets.  There is no change in the weather at this point and that remains beneficial to harvest progress.  Yields thus far remain at or slightly above expectations.  Basis remains very strong as selling remains light and exports remain stout.  The market wants the beans off the combine and so far, they are getting them.  Corn will be a much tougher buy going forward as the farmer fills the bins and looks to pick up the carries. 
 

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.