9/23/2022

Sep 23, 2022


9/23/2022
Outside markets weighed heavy on grains today.  The DOW traded near 800 points lower, crude oil traded over $5/bbl lower, breaking below some long-term support, and the dollar index continued a historic rally, trading 1.6 points higher around 1:00 this afternoon.  Most market spaces suffered steep losses on the day.  Corn and soybeans struggled to trade at unchanged on the overnight open and were sold-off hard at 8:30 this morning following the coffee break.  Trade made an attempt to bounce off of this morning's lows but recovery was limited and trade faded after the mid-day point into the weekend.  December corn lost 1 cent and November soybeans were down 23 on the week.  While we do not like seeing markets hit this hard in a single day, it is what is needed to help generate fresh demand for U.S. grains.  Further correction is likely needed as we are still at a premium to South America with the U.S. standing on the shore of a fresh new crop supply.  There were no official USDA reports or export sales announcements today and news was limited within the grains.  Early soybean harvest has finally made its way into our area with some new crop soybeans already being delivered.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.