9/23/2020

There were a couple smaller sales announced this morning of soybeans.  132,000 metric ton to China and 126,000 metric ton to Unknown.  We had similar action to yesterday as this market still feels toppy to me.  Down a dime overnight at one point, back to green figures on the sale announcements and then finished down a nickel.  Everything at the moment seems to be hinging on China purchases.  There will be more bean purchases yet to ship before January, but how much?  The market also continues to expect China to come buy corn from February thru June.  With corn basis being this firm at harvest considering a 2.5 billion carryout it just feels wrong.  Especially when rail freight is through the roof thru March.  There is never a dull moment in 2020.  When looking at early bean yields throughout the belt, it seems more people are satisfied with yields than not.  I know it's early, but typically the early beans are not the best yields we see either, so I tend to think the crop is out there.  Weather remains ideal for the next 14 days and will push harvest along at a very rapid pace.  I think that will keep a lid on these markets for now, but one big China announcement can change things in an instant.  3.60 Dec looks to be a downside objective on the corn short term.  For beans that support number is 10.00 November futures psychologically, with 9.80 technically on the charts.  I am not ready to throw in the towel on the beans just yet, but like I said harvest pressure may cause some downside risk for the next two weeks.