9/22/2021

Sep 22, 2021


9/22/2021
After a poor start to the week, the grain sector spent close to the entirety of both sessions trading higher.  Of all things, today's firm move higher across the corn, soybean, and wheat trades was supported by oats locked limit higher on small volume approximately 90 minutes into the session last night.  Around mid-day, corn and soybeans did trade back near unchanged when Reuters announced the EPA was proposing large cuts to biofuel blending requirements.  Prices recovered after trade realized the EPA already made a similar announcement earlier this year.  Daily export sales announcements have been quiet this week as harvest continues to ramp up in the US and with more crop continuously harvested, more crop continues to be hauled in.  Today, soybean basis showed its first shimmer of weakness in a number of weeks.  Weekly ethanol output continues to slide, off another 11,000 bpd to 926,000 bpd.  Ethanol stocks increased 101,000 barrels to 20.11 million barrels.  As of today, September 22, Glacial Plains will be extending its grain receiving hours to accommodate harvest.  Contact your local grain team representative to confirm hours.  Wishing everyone a safe and bountiful harvest.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.