Grain > Commentary > 9-20-2023

9/20/2023

Sep 20, 2023

Corn and soybeans reverse fortune to come back. After trading a fresh low, corn flipped the script to close 4-6 higher on the day after running into the 20-day moving average. The 20-day MA has been a spot of resistance on the December chart going back about 4 weeks. Price action in soybeans was similar, coming back firmly off of yesterday's lows and ending Wednesday with gains of 4-8 cents. The only difference is soybeans continue to coil/consolidate on the charts between the late-June lows and July highs while corn bounces off of 2 1/2-year lows. Weekly ethanol data showed a drop in production of 59,000 barrels/day to 980k bpd. Stocks rose 510,000 bpd to 21.7 mln bbls. The USDA confirmed the sale of 120,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.

December weekly continuous: There is potential for some fireworks in the corn market as trade tries to guess/define potential harvest lows. We have formed a “falling wedge” like pattern over the growing season, close this week outside of the magic lines to the high side could fuel a bullish breakout. If this happens, locking in basis for fall deliveries is key to maximizing values! Something to pay attention to going into the back half of this week.

Read More News

9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.