9/20/2023

Sep 20, 2023


Corn and soybeans reverse fortune to come back. After trading a fresh low, corn flipped the script to close 4-6 higher on the day after running into the 20-day moving average. The 20-day MA has been a spot of resistance on the December chart going back about 4 weeks. Price action in soybeans was similar, coming back firmly off of yesterday's lows and ending Wednesday with gains of 4-8 cents. The only difference is soybeans continue to coil/consolidate on the charts between the late-June lows and July highs while corn bounces off of 2 1/2-year lows. Weekly ethanol data showed a drop in production of 59,000 barrels/day to 980k bpd. Stocks rose 510,000 bpd to 21.7 mln bbls. The USDA confirmed the sale of 120,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.

December weekly continuous: There is potential for some fireworks in the corn market as trade tries to guess/define potential harvest lows. We have formed a “falling wedge” like pattern over the growing season, close this week outside of the magic lines to the high side could fuel a bullish breakout. If this happens, locking in basis for fall deliveries is key to maximizing values! Something to pay attention to going into the back half of this week.

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