9/20/2021

Sep 20, 2021


9/20/2021
A sea of red across the markets and exchanges with a macro risk-off day to start the week.  Most commodities, including grain, coffee, and livestock, saw some significant losses throughout the day.  Stock indexes also suffered from a sell-off.  As of about 1:20pm, the DOW was trading down 850 points, the NASDAQ down 430 points, and the S&P down 105 points.  There was no daily export sale announcement from the USDA this morning.  China is currently on a holiday so most aren't surprised but anything announced this morning would have most likely been purchased Thursday or Friday last week.  Export inspections perked up last week, meaning terminals in the gulf are coming back into service after Hurricane Ida left many of them damaged.  Volumes were still within trade range estimates but it was good to see that export capacity is recovering.  Last week, 403k tonnes of corn, 275k tonnes of soybeans, and 563k tonnes of wheat were inspected for export.  Locally, soybean harvest is just beginning to ramp up and early reports average in the 50-55 bushels per acre range.  Renville area reported some soybeans in the 60-70 bpa range.  No specific numbers on early corn yields in our area but has been "better than expected."

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.