9/20/2021

Sep 20, 2021


9/20/2021
A sea of red across the markets and exchanges with a macro risk-off day to start the week.  Most commodities, including grain, coffee, and livestock, saw some significant losses throughout the day.  Stock indexes also suffered from a sell-off.  As of about 1:20pm, the DOW was trading down 850 points, the NASDAQ down 430 points, and the S&P down 105 points.  There was no daily export sale announcement from the USDA this morning.  China is currently on a holiday so most aren't surprised but anything announced this morning would have most likely been purchased Thursday or Friday last week.  Export inspections perked up last week, meaning terminals in the gulf are coming back into service after Hurricane Ida left many of them damaged.  Volumes were still within trade range estimates but it was good to see that export capacity is recovering.  Last week, 403k tonnes of corn, 275k tonnes of soybeans, and 563k tonnes of wheat were inspected for export.  Locally, soybean harvest is just beginning to ramp up and early reports average in the 50-55 bushels per acre range.  Renville area reported some soybeans in the 60-70 bpa range.  No specific numbers on early corn yields in our area but has been "better than expected."

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.