9/18/2023

Sep 18, 2023


A bit of an ugly start to the week for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  Corn and soybeans held steady/sideways throughout overnight trade but immediately broke support at the 8:30am opening.  Corn finished 4 lower where it was stuck must of the day.  Soybeans finished just above their lows, down 16-23 cents on the day.  The market has been mostly disengaged on all sides as we continue on a seasonal type pattern/trend as we move inevitably closer to harvest.  Weekly export inspections came in-line with expectations.  Corn shipments totaled 642k tonnes and soybean shipments 393k tonnes.  Market-year-to-date shipments compared to last year are running roughly 10% ahead for corn and 30% behind for soybeans.  The USDA had an 8 a.m. announcement this morning confirming the sale of 123,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.

November soybeans broke support at the 200-day moving average immediately on the 8:30 re-opening.  I expect some strong support at the 100-day moving average/1300’0 area.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.