9/18/2023

Sep 18, 2023


A bit of an ugly start to the week for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  Corn and soybeans held steady/sideways throughout overnight trade but immediately broke support at the 8:30am opening.  Corn finished 4 lower where it was stuck must of the day.  Soybeans finished just above their lows, down 16-23 cents on the day.  The market has been mostly disengaged on all sides as we continue on a seasonal type pattern/trend as we move inevitably closer to harvest.  Weekly export inspections came in-line with expectations.  Corn shipments totaled 642k tonnes and soybean shipments 393k tonnes.  Market-year-to-date shipments compared to last year are running roughly 10% ahead for corn and 30% behind for soybeans.  The USDA had an 8 a.m. announcement this morning confirming the sale of 123,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.

November soybeans broke support at the 200-day moving average immediately on the 8:30 re-opening.  I expect some strong support at the 100-day moving average/1300’0 area.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.