Grain > Commentary > 9-18-2023

9/18/2023

Sep 18, 2023

A bit of an ugly start to the week for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  Corn and soybeans held steady/sideways throughout overnight trade but immediately broke support at the 8:30am opening.  Corn finished 4 lower where it was stuck must of the day.  Soybeans finished just above their lows, down 16-23 cents on the day.  The market has been mostly disengaged on all sides as we continue on a seasonal type pattern/trend as we move inevitably closer to harvest.  Weekly export inspections came in-line with expectations.  Corn shipments totaled 642k tonnes and soybean shipments 393k tonnes.  Market-year-to-date shipments compared to last year are running roughly 10% ahead for corn and 30% behind for soybeans.  The USDA had an 8 a.m. announcement this morning confirming the sale of 123,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.

November soybeans broke support at the 200-day moving average immediately on the 8:30 re-opening.  I expect some strong support at the 100-day moving average/1300’0 area.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.