9/17/2020

Sep 17, 2020


9/17/2020
More sales were announced and the rumors still continue.  Grain markets broke lower about 7:00 am going into the coffee break with corn down 3 and beans down 5.  Then the 8:00 am announcements came out and confirmed some of yesterday's rumors.  264,000 MT of beans to China, 360,500 MT to Unknown, and then a dab of corn of 120,000 MT to Unknown.  Grains then battled back to near unchanged from the 8:30 open until 9:30 and then the fireworks began.  Corn put in a new high for the move as it follows beans at 3.77 December futures.  Beans put in another new high as well at 10.3225 November futures before closing about a nickel off the highs.  Selling picked up on both corn and beans today as corn hit 3.25 cash and beans broke the 9.50 cash level.  It is truly incredible how much power these funds have once they decide to play.  Just remember how fast they can change their mind.  Continue to make sales on the way up, so we don't miss the boat.  I am not sure I can say that enough at this point.  This is a risky business to say the least, so make sure you’re doing what’s best for your business. 
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.