Grain > Commentary > 9-16-2020

9/16/2020

Sep 16, 2020

9/16/2020
Overnight markets had corn and beans down 5-6 on the first couple hours of trade last night.  By the coffee break corn was unchanged and beans were up 6.  We got another bean sale announcement to China of 327,000 metric ton at 8:00 am.  Then rumor came out that China was going to purchase another 15-20 cargoes, which got the bean market to put in a new high up 21 cents at 10.1375.  Selling began to pick up from the farmer, but was still limited compared to last week’s volume.  It feels like we are searching for the top at the moment and I am not sure anyone knows where that’s going to be.  Early bean yields I have seen have been good and I would assume these early beans won't be our best yielding beans.  Continue to scale up sales and don't try and be a hero.  These markets can correct is a quick hurry.  Corn also traded higher today as they try and follow beans.  China remains the wild card in the corn market as well.  Will they buy more US corn and how much? 
 

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.