9/15/2022

The markets struggled to find a direction today. Following some supportive/friendly news that the railway unions had come to an agreement with management, December corn touched the 690'0 level (+7'6) and November soybeans ran to 1468'4 (+13'4) but quickly retreated away from their high marks to finish the day lower. While the overall market make-up is fundamentally friendly, the market has taken over half of the premium from Monday's bullish USDA report from soybeans and erased all of it from corn. Our next market move is now dependent on if the funds want to enter long at these levels with harvest approaching and we still need to be concerned about a large-scale economic recession. Commodities perform terrible in recession scenarios. We got a data dump from the USDA with 4 combined weeks of export sales in a single report. Old crop corn and soybeans were net cancellations with -148k tonnes of corn and -111k tonnes of soybeans. New crop sales for corn totaled 2.465 million tonnes and new crop soybeans out performed expectations with 5.755 million tonnes sold over the 4-week period. The USDA acknowledged the lack of total new crop corn sales in this month's WASDE report and has created a bit of a buzz in the market. The question is always how much is China going to buy. We likely need an issue in South America to push our market to challenge the current highs.

December corn closed firmly below Monday’s open, erasing price premium from the Sept WASDE report.