Grain > Commentary > 9-15-2021

9/15/2021

Sep 15, 2021

9/15/2021
The USDA announced a soybean cancellation to China this morning of 132,000 ton.  That is the first time we have seen a cancellation.  It caused a slight panic at the open, but we shrugged it off nicely.  Corn was up 13 today on early yield concerns as there are some disease concerns.  I remain in the camp that the early corn won't be as good as the late maturity corn, but we won't know that for a couple weeks.  It might also just being as simple as buying it on sale, as we just traded below $5 futures last Friday. A run back to the 100 day moving average at $5.55 Dec futures would be healthy.  Beans tagged along up 12 for the day and is approaching $13.00 futures once again.  If you are planning to move beans off the combine basis remains stout for the time being.  Oats were up 24 cents today, I wonder what they know?  Other news was queit as we wait in most places for harest to roll.  

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.