Grain > Commentary > 9-15-2021

9/15/2021

Sep 15, 2021

9/15/2021
The USDA announced a soybean cancellation to China this morning of 132,000 ton.  That is the first time we have seen a cancellation.  It caused a slight panic at the open, but we shrugged it off nicely.  Corn was up 13 today on early yield concerns as there are some disease concerns.  I remain in the camp that the early corn won't be as good as the late maturity corn, but we won't know that for a couple weeks.  It might also just being as simple as buying it on sale, as we just traded below $5 futures last Friday. A run back to the 100 day moving average at $5.55 Dec futures would be healthy.  Beans tagged along up 12 for the day and is approaching $13.00 futures once again.  If you are planning to move beans off the combine basis remains stout for the time being.  Oats were up 24 cents today, I wonder what they know?  Other news was queit as we wait in most places for harest to roll.  

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8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.