9/15/2020

Sep 15, 2020


9/15/2020
Beans failed to make a new high today for the first time in what feels like forever.  We are overdue for a correction in the bean market as the market feels over bought for now.  The question now is if this a one-day correction or a couple week correction?  I am not ready to write off this bean rally just yet and say it’s over because export business remains stellar.  We had some more sales announcements this morning.  132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown, and 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown.  There are a couple bearish factors however at the moment which include more covid headlines, the August crush was less than expected, and harvest is fast approaching which should add some pressure.  Politics are also starting to get more headlines as of late so that is always dangerous especially in an election year.  Hearing some may be rolling with some early beans, but for the most part were 10 days away yet.  I would keep selling into this bean market and continue to scale up if you are under sold.  We are still only 17 cents off the highs. 
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.