9/15/2020

Sep 15, 2020


9/15/2020
Beans failed to make a new high today for the first time in what feels like forever.  We are overdue for a correction in the bean market as the market feels over bought for now.  The question now is if this a one-day correction or a couple week correction?  I am not ready to write off this bean rally just yet and say it’s over because export business remains stellar.  We had some more sales announcements this morning.  132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown, and 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown.  There are a couple bearish factors however at the moment which include more covid headlines, the August crush was less than expected, and harvest is fast approaching which should add some pressure.  Politics are also starting to get more headlines as of late so that is always dangerous especially in an election year.  Hearing some may be rolling with some early beans, but for the most part were 10 days away yet.  I would keep selling into this bean market and continue to scale up if you are under sold.  We are still only 17 cents off the highs. 
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.