Grain > Commentary > 9-15-2020

9/15/2020

Sep 15, 2020

9/15/2020
Beans failed to make a new high today for the first time in what feels like forever.  We are overdue for a correction in the bean market as the market feels over bought for now.  The question now is if this a one-day correction or a couple week correction?  I am not ready to write off this bean rally just yet and say it’s over because export business remains stellar.  We had some more sales announcements this morning.  132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown, and 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown.  There are a couple bearish factors however at the moment which include more covid headlines, the August crush was less than expected, and harvest is fast approaching which should add some pressure.  Politics are also starting to get more headlines as of late so that is always dangerous especially in an election year.  Hearing some may be rolling with some early beans, but for the most part were 10 days away yet.  I would keep selling into this bean market and continue to scale up if you are under sold.  We are still only 17 cents off the highs. 
 

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.