9/15/2020

Sep 15, 2020


9/15/2020
Beans failed to make a new high today for the first time in what feels like forever.  We are overdue for a correction in the bean market as the market feels over bought for now.  The question now is if this a one-day correction or a couple week correction?  I am not ready to write off this bean rally just yet and say it’s over because export business remains stellar.  We had some more sales announcements this morning.  132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown, and 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown.  There are a couple bearish factors however at the moment which include more covid headlines, the August crush was less than expected, and harvest is fast approaching which should add some pressure.  Politics are also starting to get more headlines as of late so that is always dangerous especially in an election year.  Hearing some may be rolling with some early beans, but for the most part were 10 days away yet.  I would keep selling into this bean market and continue to scale up if you are under sold.  We are still only 17 cents off the highs. 
 

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.