Grain > Commentary > 9-13-2023

9/13/2023

Sep 13, 2023

After some back-and-forth on either side of unchanged, corn and soybeans slowly found some footing going into the back half of Wednesday trade.  Corn narrowly avoided setting a new 30-month lows and turned it around for a firm gains ranging from 2-5 cents.  Soybeans traded a fresh low for the move, managing to hold a couple cents above the 200-day moving average before bouncing into the green after mid-day.  A nice reversal following such a poor performance after the USDA report yesterday.  Weekly ethanol data showed a rise in production by 27,000 barrels/day to 1.039 mln bpd.  Stocks were off by 400,000 barrels, coming in at 21.2 mln.  There were no USDA sale announcements this morning.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.