Grain > Commentary > 9-13-2022

9/13/2022

Sep 13, 2022

9/13/2022
Considering what the outside markets did today grains hung on pretty well.  The CPI rating came out this morning at 8.3% vs an expected 8.1% and the stock market didn't like it.  Before the open the DOW indicated it was traded up 250 points, but when that number came out, we were down 700 points almost instantly and is currently trading down about 1,000 points.  Crude oil started up $2 today on tight supply early this morning, then traded down $2, and is currently back to unchanged.  The US dollar is sharply higher up 1.364 at this time and currently trading 109.68.  That is not good for exports in a market we are already not competitive in.  Feds will raise interest rates again next round.  The railroad has until Friday night to come up with a deal or their employees strike Saturday.  There is not much new information for the grain markets as we continue to digest yesterday's USDA report.  I feel it is going to be hard for the market to work too much higher as harvest approaches.  

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.