Grain > Commentary > 9-13-2022

9/13/2022

Sep 13, 2022

9/13/2022
Considering what the outside markets did today grains hung on pretty well.  The CPI rating came out this morning at 8.3% vs an expected 8.1% and the stock market didn't like it.  Before the open the DOW indicated it was traded up 250 points, but when that number came out, we were down 700 points almost instantly and is currently trading down about 1,000 points.  Crude oil started up $2 today on tight supply early this morning, then traded down $2, and is currently back to unchanged.  The US dollar is sharply higher up 1.364 at this time and currently trading 109.68.  That is not good for exports in a market we are already not competitive in.  Feds will raise interest rates again next round.  The railroad has until Friday night to come up with a deal or their employees strike Saturday.  There is not much new information for the grain markets as we continue to digest yesterday's USDA report.  I feel it is going to be hard for the market to work too much higher as harvest approaches.  

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.