Grain > Commentary > 9-13-2022

9/13/2022

Sep 13, 2022

9/13/2022
Considering what the outside markets did today grains hung on pretty well.  The CPI rating came out this morning at 8.3% vs an expected 8.1% and the stock market didn't like it.  Before the open the DOW indicated it was traded up 250 points, but when that number came out, we were down 700 points almost instantly and is currently trading down about 1,000 points.  Crude oil started up $2 today on tight supply early this morning, then traded down $2, and is currently back to unchanged.  The US dollar is sharply higher up 1.364 at this time and currently trading 109.68.  That is not good for exports in a market we are already not competitive in.  Feds will raise interest rates again next round.  The railroad has until Friday night to come up with a deal or their employees strike Saturday.  There is not much new information for the grain markets as we continue to digest yesterday's USDA report.  I feel it is going to be hard for the market to work too much higher as harvest approaches.  

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.