9/13/2021

Sep 13, 2021


9/13/2021
Today was quiet as the market continues to digest the USDA report from Friday. We traded slightly lower most of the session with nothing much to talk about. We did have another 132,000 metric ton of beans sold to unknown announced this morning. Early yield reports are starting to trickle in, but it is too early to form a bias. Most of the beans are still a week or two away in our neck of the woods. The later maturity crops should be better than the early maturity this year, as those late rains should have been more beneficial. I am not ready to throw in the towel by those disappointed on the early crops thus far. Basis remains stout on the new crop corn and beans. These are the best numbers I have seen since 2007 when I started merchandising. If you have Hedge to Arrives I would take a look at locking in basis if you need to haul at harvest. If you have room in the bin I would be thinking about rolling them out at this time. Carries are also about as wide as we have seen them. I am not expecting large carries again this year.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.