9/13/2021

Sep 13, 2021


9/13/2021
Today was quiet as the market continues to digest the USDA report from Friday. We traded slightly lower most of the session with nothing much to talk about. We did have another 132,000 metric ton of beans sold to unknown announced this morning. Early yield reports are starting to trickle in, but it is too early to form a bias. Most of the beans are still a week or two away in our neck of the woods. The later maturity crops should be better than the early maturity this year, as those late rains should have been more beneficial. I am not ready to throw in the towel by those disappointed on the early crops thus far. Basis remains stout on the new crop corn and beans. These are the best numbers I have seen since 2007 when I started merchandising. If you have Hedge to Arrives I would take a look at locking in basis if you need to haul at harvest. If you have room in the bin I would be thinking about rolling them out at this time. Carries are also about as wide as we have seen them. I am not expecting large carries again this year.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.