Grain > Commentary > 9-12-2025

9/12/2025

Sep 12, 2025

USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.  The 24/25 ending stocks were increased by 20 mbu to 1,325 mbu.  For Soybeans, they gave us a slight yield adjustment from 53.6 bushels per acre down to 53.5 bpa.  Harvested area bumped up .2 million acres to 80.3 million.  25/26 bean carryout was pegged at 300 million bushels vs 290 mbu last month and the market estimate of 298 mbu. Soybean Exports got lowered by 20 million bushels, with the USDA noting increased soybean competition, but no mention of lack of Chinese trade.  US 24/25 soybean carryout was left unchanged at 330 million bushels.  Overall, the markets shrugged this report off nicely today and finished at the highs.  Traders are still leaning towards a lower yield.
 

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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
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8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.