9/12/2022

Sep 12, 2022


9/12/2022
The USDA estimated the corn yield at 172.5 bpa, down 2.9 bushels from their August and right in line with expectations.  Harvested acres were lowered 1 million acres down to 80.8 million acres which was a bit of a surprise.  History tells us that when the USDA drops yield in September, the tendency is to drop it again before the final yield.  This change put the corn carryout at 1.219, which is in line with the estimate, but not telling the whole story.  What it is not telling you is the USDA cut corn usage by 570,000 bushel year on year.  And to go along with that the stocks to use ratio is down to 8.5%, which is getting tight.  The big surprise was in the bean market this time.  They lowered their national average yield estimate by 1.4 bushels to 50.5 bushels per acre and cut
harvested acres by 580,000 acres.  They had to lower crush down 20 million, exports down 70 million, and residual use down 3 million from last month just to keep the carryout at 200 million bushels.  That got the market to jump 76 cents today and insured the volatility is going to stick around for a while!  Keep that seat belt buckled.   

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.