Grain > Commentary > 9-11-2023

9/11/2023

Sep 11, 2023

Corn and soybeans start the week with higher finishes in modest fashion.  Corn closed up 2-3 cents and soybeans 5-7 cents higher.  Trade was two-sided throughout the session but there was the appearance of some simple positioning ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report where analysts expect the USDA to make some cuts to the 2023 crop yields.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 185,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2023/24 marketing year.  The weekly export inspections report showed corn at the upper end of expectations with 624k tonnes shipped but soybeans on the low side at 310k tonnes inspected.

Corn has been consolidating on the chart since the Aug WASDE report and is set up for a possible breakout following tomorrow’s report at 11 a.m. 

 

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.