9/11/2020

Sep 11, 2020


9/11/2020
Markets traded higher overnight as beans broke through the 9.8275 resistance area and was trading up 7-8 at the coffee break.  We got a couple bean sales announced this morning of 222,000 mt of beans to Unknown and 262,000 mt of beans to China.  That was enough to get the markets to new highs ahead of the report up 12-13.  Then the report happened.  Overall, the report itself was not bullish, but there is a bullish spin to the story.  The market knows this recent frost is not figured in this report, so yields in the future reports have a lower bias.  Bean export demand is still very strong as sales continue almost daily and the USDA did not adjust exports higher like many thought they should, so bias going forward is that exports need to be higher.  So, the USDA gave us a carryout of 460 million and it would not be hard to argue that between a yield drop and an export adjustment we could drop that carryout by 100 million additional bushels.  10.04 November futures is the new target, which is the high from December 2017.  The report for corn was slightly bearish, but with beans higher corn felt like it had to follow.  Corn yield was pegged at 178.5 bpa, down 3.3 bushel from Aug, but right near the 178.3 avg guess.  Carryout was put at 2.503 billion down 253 million from Aug, but 50 million more than the average guess. 2.503 billion is still a rather healthy carryout, but it’s a far cry from the near 3 billion carryout we were looking at in July.  Corn exports were raised by 100 million, ethanol was lowered by 100 million, and feed was lowered by 100 million on this report.  Harvested acres, which was a big question after the Derecho, was put at 83.5 million vs 84 million in August.  For the week corn was up 10 and beans were up 28.  Have a good weekend!
 

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...