Grain > Commentary > 9-10-2021

9/10/2021

Sep 10, 2021

9/10/2021
Slightly higher trade for corn and soybeans overnight inside of a relatively small range leading up to the 11:00am report time.  The USDA made an 8am sale announcement of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2021/22 this morning.  Overall, the WASDE report was a little more unfriendly than trade expectations but, after trending lower for 3 weeks, the market had already priced in report negativity, and then some.  Weekly closes in Murdock: cash corn down 24, new crop corn 7 lower, cash and new crop beans both down 4 cents on the week.

WASDE Summary
Corn: A small increase to old crop ending stocks, more acres, more yield, USDA used to some magic to offset added production with some increased exports and feed & residual numbers.  2021/22 Ending stocks still increased by 166 million bushels (an additional 700,000 acres added in is possible, yet).

Soybeans: An interesting combination of changes, a few less acres but added yield for a net increase in production.  Small net change in total use.  I’m skeptical on the national soybean yield above 50.  The volume of soybean acres in the Dakotas has the potential to drag that number down.

china-bean-map-(1).jpgchina-hog-farm-(2).jpg

Read More News

8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.