Grain > Commentary > 9-10-2020

9/10/2020

Sep 10, 2020

9/10/2020
Another export sale of 195,00 MT of soybeans to China for 2020/21 was announced this morning.  Demand just keeps coming, now we just need to make sure we can execute on all these sales.  The BNSF has a heavy task ahead of them in a year that has been nothing but struggles.  Beans posted their sixth consecutive day of a higher highs and higher lows, which is impressive to say the least heading into a report.  Beans did however close lower today for the first time in the past 13 sessions, even though it was only down a penny.  9.8275 November futures remains the target.  Like I said yesterday, tomorrow could be a very dangerous risk/reward report for this soybean market.  Be careful and have orders working where you feel comfortable.  Corn made a new high for the move as we traded and closed over the 3.63 Dec level for the first time on this move.  That opens the door to 3.75 - 3.80 Dec.  Demand remains a bullish story with corn as well.  An article put out last night said China has currently bought 10 mmt thus far and may need up to 30 mmt.  That is obviously not all US corn, but that’s a big number.  If half of that is US it would still be a friendly scenario.  Tomorrow at 11:00 AM we will have the answers, so strap in those seatbelts. 
 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.