Grain > Commentary > 9-10-2020

9/10/2020

Sep 10, 2020

9/10/2020
Another export sale of 195,00 MT of soybeans to China for 2020/21 was announced this morning.  Demand just keeps coming, now we just need to make sure we can execute on all these sales.  The BNSF has a heavy task ahead of them in a year that has been nothing but struggles.  Beans posted their sixth consecutive day of a higher highs and higher lows, which is impressive to say the least heading into a report.  Beans did however close lower today for the first time in the past 13 sessions, even though it was only down a penny.  9.8275 November futures remains the target.  Like I said yesterday, tomorrow could be a very dangerous risk/reward report for this soybean market.  Be careful and have orders working where you feel comfortable.  Corn made a new high for the move as we traded and closed over the 3.63 Dec level for the first time on this move.  That opens the door to 3.75 - 3.80 Dec.  Demand remains a bullish story with corn as well.  An article put out last night said China has currently bought 10 mmt thus far and may need up to 30 mmt.  That is obviously not all US corn, but that’s a big number.  If half of that is US it would still be a friendly scenario.  Tomorrow at 11:00 AM we will have the answers, so strap in those seatbelts. 
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.