9/1/2022

Sep 01, 2022


9/1/2022
Today was an ugly day in the markets once again.  Harvest is rapidly approaching and it feels like the markets are aware of that.  Wheat was the dog today down 40 in Minneapolis and 60 in Kansas City.  Equities started the day lower again, but have since clawed their way back to near unchanged on the Dow.  Crude oil was down over $3 today as that market is nearing support at the $85 area.  It might be poised to finally break below support?  The US dollar was sharply higher today, up a full point and making new highs once again at almost 110.  Thats not a good sign for exports.  The USDA export sales announcements won't happen for a couple weeks as their system remains down.  I still want to stress that if you have HTA's you want to be thinking about rolling them out as carries might be non-existent this year.  For corn, 7 cents to the march and 9 cents to the may are my targets.  It might take early harvest pressure to get there, so have orders working.  Depending on where final yields end up, it feels like some areas are going to be short corn.  Mainly the Nebraska and Kansas areas.  There is already talk of northern corn going south into feeder markets this year and we haven't even started harvest.  That has not happened for a few years and tends to change the game a bit.  There is never a dull moment in the grain business.  

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.