9/1/2020

Sep 01, 2020


9/1/2020
Last night's crop ratings had corn rated 62% good/excellent, down 2 pts from last week but 1 pt better than trade expectations.  Soybeans dropped 3 pts to 66% good/excellent, equal to expectations.  The markets started out down 5-10 cents on both corn and beans on the overnight, but started to recover after a couple hours of trade.  By this morning's coffee break beans were trading higher and corn was back near unchanged.  We did have a couple export sales announced this morning, which were 596,000 metric ton of corn to China and 132,000 metric ton of beans to Unknown.  It is good to see the export sales continue to China as we are now into September.  Some parts of Iowa and Illinois got some rain today, but the driest parts of Iowa stay dry.  The forecast continues to look very cool and dry in the 6-10 and 8-14 day.  Basis continues to hold in there for new crop as farmer selling picked up on the move higher, but has since slowed back down.  Another move higher on the board could cause basis to widen out as harvest approaches.  I have not talked about rail freight much lately, but it is still very spendy for Sept thru March at this point as harvest approaches.
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.