9/1/2020

Sep 01, 2020


9/1/2020
Last night's crop ratings had corn rated 62% good/excellent, down 2 pts from last week but 1 pt better than trade expectations.  Soybeans dropped 3 pts to 66% good/excellent, equal to expectations.  The markets started out down 5-10 cents on both corn and beans on the overnight, but started to recover after a couple hours of trade.  By this morning's coffee break beans were trading higher and corn was back near unchanged.  We did have a couple export sales announced this morning, which were 596,000 metric ton of corn to China and 132,000 metric ton of beans to Unknown.  It is good to see the export sales continue to China as we are now into September.  Some parts of Iowa and Illinois got some rain today, but the driest parts of Iowa stay dry.  The forecast continues to look very cool and dry in the 6-10 and 8-14 day.  Basis continues to hold in there for new crop as farmer selling picked up on the move higher, but has since slowed back down.  Another move higher on the board could cause basis to widen out as harvest approaches.  I have not talked about rail freight much lately, but it is still very spendy for Sept thru March at this point as harvest approaches.
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.