Aug 09, 2021

Weaker from the Sunday night open all the way to market close this afternoon.  Weekend rainfall was fairly widespread across the corn belt and extremely timely for soybean development.  Also adding pressure today were the weekly export inspections which did not impress trade at 667k tonnes of corn and 114k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  Soybeans came in just above their bottom estimate of 100k tonnes but corn fell well short of its low estimate of 900k tonnes.  This pace puts shipments 51 million bushels below the USDA's target for corn exports.  It's a real possibility we may see the USDA lower its corn export number in Thursday's report.  Soybean export pace is still 8 million bushels above what is needed to hit the USDA target but has slipped in recent weeks and will likely fall short, as well.  There was 606k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment last week, out-performing the top estimate of 525k tonnes.  We had an 8am sale announcement of 104,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  New estimates for Brazilian soybean production are 137.5 mln tonnes in 2021 vs 127.9 mln tonnes in 2020, an increase of approximately 350 million bushels.  Brazil soybean exports are also expected to increase 3.8 mln tonnes to 86.7 mln tonnes total.

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