Grain > Commentary > 8-9-2021

8/9/2021

Aug 09, 2021

8/9/2021
Weaker from the Sunday night open all the way to market close this afternoon.  Weekend rainfall was fairly widespread across the corn belt and extremely timely for soybean development.  Also adding pressure today were the weekly export inspections which did not impress trade at 667k tonnes of corn and 114k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  Soybeans came in just above their bottom estimate of 100k tonnes but corn fell well short of its low estimate of 900k tonnes.  This pace puts shipments 51 million bushels below the USDA's target for corn exports.  It's a real possibility we may see the USDA lower its corn export number in Thursday's report.  Soybean export pace is still 8 million bushels above what is needed to hit the USDA target but has slipped in recent weeks and will likely fall short, as well.  There was 606k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment last week, out-performing the top estimate of 525k tonnes.  We had an 8am sale announcement of 104,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  New estimates for Brazilian soybean production are 137.5 mln tonnes in 2021 vs 127.9 mln tonnes in 2020, an increase of approximately 350 million bushels.  Brazil soybean exports are also expected to increase 3.8 mln tonnes to 86.7 mln tonnes total.

Read More News

11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.