Grain > Commentary > 8-9-2021

8/9/2021

Aug 09, 2021

8/9/2021
Weaker from the Sunday night open all the way to market close this afternoon.  Weekend rainfall was fairly widespread across the corn belt and extremely timely for soybean development.  Also adding pressure today were the weekly export inspections which did not impress trade at 667k tonnes of corn and 114k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  Soybeans came in just above their bottom estimate of 100k tonnes but corn fell well short of its low estimate of 900k tonnes.  This pace puts shipments 51 million bushels below the USDA's target for corn exports.  It's a real possibility we may see the USDA lower its corn export number in Thursday's report.  Soybean export pace is still 8 million bushels above what is needed to hit the USDA target but has slipped in recent weeks and will likely fall short, as well.  There was 606k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment last week, out-performing the top estimate of 525k tonnes.  We had an 8am sale announcement of 104,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  New estimates for Brazilian soybean production are 137.5 mln tonnes in 2021 vs 127.9 mln tonnes in 2020, an increase of approximately 350 million bushels.  Brazil soybean exports are also expected to increase 3.8 mln tonnes to 86.7 mln tonnes total.

Read More News

5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.