8/9/2021

Aug 09, 2021


8/9/2021
Weaker from the Sunday night open all the way to market close this afternoon.  Weekend rainfall was fairly widespread across the corn belt and extremely timely for soybean development.  Also adding pressure today were the weekly export inspections which did not impress trade at 667k tonnes of corn and 114k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  Soybeans came in just above their bottom estimate of 100k tonnes but corn fell well short of its low estimate of 900k tonnes.  This pace puts shipments 51 million bushels below the USDA's target for corn exports.  It's a real possibility we may see the USDA lower its corn export number in Thursday's report.  Soybean export pace is still 8 million bushels above what is needed to hit the USDA target but has slipped in recent weeks and will likely fall short, as well.  There was 606k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment last week, out-performing the top estimate of 525k tonnes.  We had an 8am sale announcement of 104,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  New estimates for Brazilian soybean production are 137.5 mln tonnes in 2021 vs 127.9 mln tonnes in 2020, an increase of approximately 350 million bushels.  Brazil soybean exports are also expected to increase 3.8 mln tonnes to 86.7 mln tonnes total.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.