8/5/2024

Aug 05, 2024


On a day where almost every other market space and commodity was red, corn and soybeans were the darlings of the day. Were they large gains? No, but with the macro effect leaning largely negative following some ruthless overnight trade, corn improved 3-4 cents and soybeans found a double-digit bounce. Japan's stock exchange was halted almost immediately on their market open and South Korea followed suit shortly after. There is a huge unwind happening between the Japanese Yen and Japan's low interest rates and the U.S. dollar. The U.S. economy has been overheated for quite a while and a correction is necessary. Export inspections for the week were solid for corn at 1.213 mln tonnes shipped. Soybeans were reported at 261k tonnes. The big downturn in corn prices has made the U.S. competitive globally. Inspection pace for corn is now short 31 million bushels compared to 39 million bushels short last week. Soybean shipment pace continues to slowly lose momentum and is now 16 million bushels ahead of the pace needed versus 23 million bushels ahead the previous week.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.