8/5/2024

Aug 05, 2024


On a day where almost every other market space and commodity was red, corn and soybeans were the darlings of the day. Were they large gains? No, but with the macro effect leaning largely negative following some ruthless overnight trade, corn improved 3-4 cents and soybeans found a double-digit bounce. Japan's stock exchange was halted almost immediately on their market open and South Korea followed suit shortly after. There is a huge unwind happening between the Japanese Yen and Japan's low interest rates and the U.S. dollar. The U.S. economy has been overheated for quite a while and a correction is necessary. Export inspections for the week were solid for corn at 1.213 mln tonnes shipped. Soybeans were reported at 261k tonnes. The big downturn in corn prices has made the U.S. competitive globally. Inspection pace for corn is now short 31 million bushels compared to 39 million bushels short last week. Soybean shipment pace continues to slowly lose momentum and is now 16 million bushels ahead of the pace needed versus 23 million bushels ahead the previous week.

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.