8/5/2024

Aug 05, 2024


On a day where almost every other market space and commodity was red, corn and soybeans were the darlings of the day. Were they large gains? No, but with the macro effect leaning largely negative following some ruthless overnight trade, corn improved 3-4 cents and soybeans found a double-digit bounce. Japan's stock exchange was halted almost immediately on their market open and South Korea followed suit shortly after. There is a huge unwind happening between the Japanese Yen and Japan's low interest rates and the U.S. dollar. The U.S. economy has been overheated for quite a while and a correction is necessary. Export inspections for the week were solid for corn at 1.213 mln tonnes shipped. Soybeans were reported at 261k tonnes. The big downturn in corn prices has made the U.S. competitive globally. Inspection pace for corn is now short 31 million bushels compared to 39 million bushels short last week. Soybean shipment pace continues to slowly lose momentum and is now 16 million bushels ahead of the pace needed versus 23 million bushels ahead the previous week.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.