8/5/2021

Aug 05, 2021


8/5/2021
Corn tacks on another day of range trade with the front month continuing to bounce around between the 540 and 560 marks.  Soybeans improved a few notches for the second consecutive day after a sharply lower move earlier in the week.  We had a little more of an active day of trading news with weekly export sales report showing all net positives for old and new crop.  Last week, we netted 68k tonnes of old crop corn sold and 11k tonnes of old crop beans.  New crop sales put together another solid week with 425k tonnes of new crop beans sold and new crop corn out performing expectations with 830k tonnes sold.  We also had an 8am announcement from the USDA this morning of 300,000 tonnes (11 mln bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  With harvest not terribly far away, we are recommending those with hedge-to-arrive sales to take a look at current basis and consider what it may do when grain begins to move.  Study the carry that has developed in the corn market, as well, there is some opportunity to be had with rolling hedges out.  Last night's chance of rain was a bad miss but it appears the chance of rain early Saturday morning is stable for now.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.