8/5/2021

Aug 05, 2021


8/5/2021
Corn tacks on another day of range trade with the front month continuing to bounce around between the 540 and 560 marks.  Soybeans improved a few notches for the second consecutive day after a sharply lower move earlier in the week.  We had a little more of an active day of trading news with weekly export sales report showing all net positives for old and new crop.  Last week, we netted 68k tonnes of old crop corn sold and 11k tonnes of old crop beans.  New crop sales put together another solid week with 425k tonnes of new crop beans sold and new crop corn out performing expectations with 830k tonnes sold.  We also had an 8am announcement from the USDA this morning of 300,000 tonnes (11 mln bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  With harvest not terribly far away, we are recommending those with hedge-to-arrive sales to take a look at current basis and consider what it may do when grain begins to move.  Study the carry that has developed in the corn market, as well, there is some opportunity to be had with rolling hedges out.  Last night's chance of rain was a bad miss but it appears the chance of rain early Saturday morning is stable for now.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.