8/4/2021

Corn was pressured again, today, by new weather models suddenly showing good chances of precipitation in parts of important growing areas.  Locally, we are even showing some higher percent chances for tonight and at the start of the weekend of rain that wasn't there yesterday.  Soybeans bounced back slightly, finishing 6 higher on the day after yesterday's sharply lower move.  I am looking for volatility to remain consistent with the 10-20 cent daily ranges and prices to stay rangebound until we get some fresh fundamentals to trade on next Thursday with the August WASDE report.  Overall, we will likely follow seasonal trend lower into harvest with South America currently supplying the global market.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed production down 1,000 bpd to 1.013 million bpd and stocks shrinking 100k bbls to 22.6 mln bbls.  The current pace of corn usage for ethanol is 44 million bushels short of the USDA's target for the year.  The StoneX customer yield survey results were released yesterday and showed a national average of 176.9 bu/ac for corn and 50 bu/ac for soybeans.  There is always upside in every market at any time but do not let bullishness get in the way of practical decision making.  $6.00 cash corn is not a mistake and new crop corn delivered above $5.00 is not a mistake.