Grain > Commentary > 8-31-2021

8/31/2021

Aug 31, 2021

8/31/2021
Corn and soybeans post another day in the red as the seasonal downtrend ahead of harvest rolls on.  The market spent today trying to assess the impact of hurricane Ida and how it affects export shipping.  The USDA's 2021/2022 export targets for corn and soybeans are already at risk of being unattainable.  Spreads have weakened to 12-15 months lows, now is an excellent opportunity to roll hedges forward ahead of harvest and grab some good carry in the market.  Dec to Mar corn spread closed at an 8-cent carry and Dec to May corn spread would pick up 12 cents.  The Nov to Jan soybean spread closed at a 7-cent carry, 2 cents off its contract low.  Today was the final day for the 2020/2021 marketing year for corn and soybeans and we closed it out with no daily export sale announcement.  It seems as though mother nature has flipped the switch and we are now in a wetter weather pattern with precipitation steadily forecasted going into September.  It wouldn't be a surprise to see risk continue to be taken off going into the long Labor Day weekend.

Read More News

9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.