Grain > Commentary > 8-31-2021

8/31/2021

Aug 31, 2021

8/31/2021
Corn and soybeans post another day in the red as the seasonal downtrend ahead of harvest rolls on.  The market spent today trying to assess the impact of hurricane Ida and how it affects export shipping.  The USDA's 2021/2022 export targets for corn and soybeans are already at risk of being unattainable.  Spreads have weakened to 12-15 months lows, now is an excellent opportunity to roll hedges forward ahead of harvest and grab some good carry in the market.  Dec to Mar corn spread closed at an 8-cent carry and Dec to May corn spread would pick up 12 cents.  The Nov to Jan soybean spread closed at a 7-cent carry, 2 cents off its contract low.  Today was the final day for the 2020/2021 marketing year for corn and soybeans and we closed it out with no daily export sale announcement.  It seems as though mother nature has flipped the switch and we are now in a wetter weather pattern with precipitation steadily forecasted going into September.  It wouldn't be a surprise to see risk continue to be taken off going into the long Labor Day weekend.

Read More News

2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.