8/30/2024

Aug 30, 2024


Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales volume for new crop soybeans stood ta 16.1% of the total USDA forecast, a three-year high for the week.  In early July, that total was only 6.5%, a 5 year low.  You can see in history, it's not entirely rare to see futures markets bottom out in August but its still more than likely we have not seen the lows, yet.  Harvest is just around the corner and we will soon see a flush of new grain supply hit the market.  We still have a situation where any significant price rally in the U.S. that does not have any sort of threat to the supply to support it will immediately price the U.S. out of the global grain market.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed on Monday, September 2nd for Labor Day.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.