Grain > Commentary > 8-30-2022

8/30/2022

Aug 30, 2022

8/30/2022
An overall ugly day across the board today.  The only positive note is that corn and beans both finished well off their lows.  The Dow is down another 400 points as I am writing this, making the last 3 days losses now over 1,500 points.  Crude oil erased yesterday's big gains and then some down over $5 today.  It feels like we are in risk off mode ahead of the 3 day holiday weekend.  Weekly crop ratings for corn dropped 1 point to 54% G/E and soybeans were unchanged at 57% G/E.  Dr. Cordonnier lowered his corn yield prediction by 3 bushel to 170 bpa and noted dry conditions in areas of the western Corn Belt to blame.  We did have a soybean export sale announcement of 264,000 metric ton to Unknown for 22/23 delivery this morning.  Corn spreads widened back out a touch today.  If you are looking to roll any Dec HTA's out to the March I would have orders working at 7 cents.  Our widest point thus far is only 8 cents and if the pro farmer yield is close we might not get back to that point.  I can't stress enough that this volatility is going to continue in these markets.  Just look at beans the last few days.  We are seeing 30-40 cent ranges daily on very little news.  While this also gives opportunity in the market it also adds a lot more risk.  Buckle in and make sales that make sense for your operation.  $6.50 corn and $14.00 beans new crop levels are not a mistake.  

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.