8/3/2022

Overnight trade was higher and viewed as opportunity to for further sell-off after the 8:30am open. Corn and soybeans failed to hold gains and reversed sharply on the day, following crude oil's lead. We're in the dog days of the marketing year and trade has gone on for a while without any fresh news, this typically creates a bearish sentiment over the market. We did have an export sale announcement this morning of 135,000 tonnes (4.95 mln bu) of soybeans for delivery to Poland during the 2022/23 marketing year. Vessels loaded with grain continue to depart Ukraine, corn continues to pile up in Brazil, and corn use for ethanol in the U.S. remains well behind the USDA target for the year. Weekly ethanol numbers showed output up 22,000 barrels/day to 1.04 mln bpd and stocks up 66,000 barrels to 23.39 mln bbls. On a positive note, corn spreads continue to weaken, providing improved opportunity to roll new crop hedges out to the March or May 2023 contracts. At the close today, rolling corn hedges to March would net 7 cents and rolling to the May would net 12 cents. Soybean spreads provide a net of 7-8 cents in carry.

Big range in soybeans today with November closing just under the 20-day moving average after breeching the 1400’0 mark. Partial downside gap fill.