8/3/2021

Aug 03, 2021


8/3/2021
Last night corn ratings dropped 2% to 62% good to excellent slightly below expectations.  Bean ratings improved 2% to 60% good to excellent.  The trade was expecting a decline to 57%, which in all likelihood is why the bean market fell apart today.  I don't want to say I don't believe the numbers, but....If rains fell and made the bean acres better, shouldn't it have rained on the corn acres too?  Last night's forecast seemed to add a little more moisture in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day for the eastern corn belt, which also added pressure to the bean markets today.  We are hitting a crucial time for the beans where a little rain can make a big difference to fill pods.  Let's hope we can catch a shot late this week.  StoneX guess on yield will be today after the close, so that will be a watch for how we start tonight's trade.  It feels to me like this market is in chop mode.  Neither the bulls or the bears can find enough to pull the market either direction. It also doesn't help when we are into a down trending seasonal time frame.  If you have old crop corn left, make sure you have a plan.  You don't want to hold it into a current 84 cent cash inverse.  There are still some holes to fill end user needs, but once they are covered, we go to new crop values in a blink of an eye.  So be careful.  $6 cash corn is not a mistake.  Inverses never end in a good way!

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.