Grain > Commentary > 8-28-2023

8/28/2023

Aug 28, 2023

Corn and soybeans gap higher at the Sunday night open and hold through Monday to complete gains of 5-8 cents in corn and 11-18 cents in soybeans.  That trade was fueled simply by weather forecasts.  Wheat was the lone sore spot in grains, with losses of 4-16 cents across different classes.  The USDA made two sale announcements this morning, confirming 123,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico and 296,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown, both for the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly export inspections came in above expectations for corn with 597k tonnes shipped.  Soybean inspections were midrange at 322k tonnes.  ProFarmer's final yields for their crop tour were released late Friday with 172.0 bu/ac for corn and 49.7 bu/ac for soybeans.  This would work out to 2.185 bln bu corn carryout for the 2023/24 marketing year but would create some very tight stocks for soybeans.  This rally has created some optimism going into harvest but with record production in Brazil, up-side potential is limited.  Corn has been reluctant to follow soybeans over the past 3 weeks.  While Nov soybean futures have rallied 80 cents in that timeframe, Dec corn remains virtually unchanged.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.