8/26/2022

Aug 26, 2022


8/26/2022
A quick rebound after yesterday's weak close.  Grains saw their session lows upon the opening of overnight trade and had worked their way towards 7 higher on corn and 17 higher on soybeans before the coffee break.  The 8:30 am opening bell saw another round of sharp sell-off but prices recovered beyond their previous levels and were firmly trading double-digits higher, including some 30 higher trade in soybeans.  With little else going on, trade was about positioning ahead of ProFarmer's release of their crop tour final results this afternoon.  Their data from yesterday's surveying revealed Minnesota as the garden state this year and Iowa hanging on to a respectable average crop.  The USDA made another export sale announcement this morning of 146,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year.  That's a total of 773,000 tonnes (about 28.3 million bushels) of soybeans announced this week with all but today's sale assigned to China.  It's always exciting for the market to see China on export sales but corn sales need to start picking their pace.  Today's action in grains may have also been slightly supported by money leaving Wall Street following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech today.  Originally slated to last up to one half hour, Powell only needed 8 minutes to warn what most have been expecting for over a year now: full economic recession.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.