8/26/2022

Aug 26, 2022


8/26/2022
A quick rebound after yesterday's weak close.  Grains saw their session lows upon the opening of overnight trade and had worked their way towards 7 higher on corn and 17 higher on soybeans before the coffee break.  The 8:30 am opening bell saw another round of sharp sell-off but prices recovered beyond their previous levels and were firmly trading double-digits higher, including some 30 higher trade in soybeans.  With little else going on, trade was about positioning ahead of ProFarmer's release of their crop tour final results this afternoon.  Their data from yesterday's surveying revealed Minnesota as the garden state this year and Iowa hanging on to a respectable average crop.  The USDA made another export sale announcement this morning of 146,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year.  That's a total of 773,000 tonnes (about 28.3 million bushels) of soybeans announced this week with all but today's sale assigned to China.  It's always exciting for the market to see China on export sales but corn sales need to start picking their pace.  Today's action in grains may have also been slightly supported by money leaving Wall Street following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech today.  Originally slated to last up to one half hour, Powell only needed 8 minutes to warn what most have been expecting for over a year now: full economic recession.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.