8/26/2021

Aug 26, 2021


8/26/2021
Overall, a quiet trading day in both sessions with corn trading a 6-cent range and a 13-cent range in soybeans.  Weekly export sales were within range with old crop sales netting 7k tonnes of corn and 75k tonnes of soybeans sold last week.  New crop sales were at the bottom end of expectations for corn with 684k tonnes sold.  New crop soybean sales were strong with 1.75 million tonnes sold last week.  The USDA confirmed a few 2021/2022 export sales at 8 a.m. this morning with 100,000 tonnes of corn to Colombia, 133,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, and 132,150 tonnes of soybeans to unknown.  A couple strong storm systems are moving across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa today bringing some significant rainfall and wind gusts.  We did have an early report of some crop damage due to high wind but nothing widespread.  Going into the final trading day of the week, technicals show that the market is comfortable with December corn to continue trading near 550'0 and November beans near 1330'0.  Speaking for myself, it certainly feels like the US crop has gotten bigger over the past two weeks.  We talked drought all summer but still have not seen any evidence of widespread crop failure.  Market upside is limited at this point and there are more points of resistance above us than support lines below our current levels.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.