8/26/2021

Aug 26, 2021


8/26/2021
Overall, a quiet trading day in both sessions with corn trading a 6-cent range and a 13-cent range in soybeans.  Weekly export sales were within range with old crop sales netting 7k tonnes of corn and 75k tonnes of soybeans sold last week.  New crop sales were at the bottom end of expectations for corn with 684k tonnes sold.  New crop soybean sales were strong with 1.75 million tonnes sold last week.  The USDA confirmed a few 2021/2022 export sales at 8 a.m. this morning with 100,000 tonnes of corn to Colombia, 133,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, and 132,150 tonnes of soybeans to unknown.  A couple strong storm systems are moving across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa today bringing some significant rainfall and wind gusts.  We did have an early report of some crop damage due to high wind but nothing widespread.  Going into the final trading day of the week, technicals show that the market is comfortable with December corn to continue trading near 550'0 and November beans near 1330'0.  Speaking for myself, it certainly feels like the US crop has gotten bigger over the past two weeks.  We talked drought all summer but still have not seen any evidence of widespread crop failure.  Market upside is limited at this point and there are more points of resistance above us than support lines below our current levels.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.