8/25/2023

Aug 25, 2023


Soybeans complete another day of firmly higher trade with double-digit gains and more strength in spreads while corn continues to be stuck sideways with spreads weakening. The USDA lit the lamp at 8 a.m. this morning confirming the sale of 121,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2023/24 marketing year. ProFarmer completed their tour yesterday and found a fair amount of variability in the crop that was mostly as expected. We trade headlines and every year we trade the same weather headlines when it comes to the U.S. growing season. It's always too dry here, too wet over there, too hot in this place, or too cold at that place. Overall, the tour found a crop similar to last year and history tells us that this tour is typically very conservative in their corn yield estimates.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.